Consequences of equivalency metric design for energy transitions and climate change
Name
10584_2022_Article_3442.pdf
Size
2.99 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
ffd215dff00a84247133359766ab5394
Author(s)
Edwards, Morgan R.
Trancik, Jessika E.
Date Issued
November 11, 2022
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Citation
Climatic Change. 2022 Nov 11;175(1-2):4
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Abstract
Assessments of the climate impacts of energy technologies and other emissions sources can depend strongly on the equivalency metric used to compare short- and long-lived greenhouse gas emissions. However, the consequences of metric design choices are not fully understood, and in practice, a single metric, the global warming potential (GWP), is used almost universally. Many metrics have been proposed and evaluated in recent decades, but questions still remain about which ones perform better and why. Here, we develop new insights on how the design of equivalency metrics can impact the outcomes of climate policies. We distill the equivalency metric problem into a few key design choices that determine the metric values and shapes seen across a wide range of different proposed metrics. We examine outcomes under a hypothetical 1.5 or 2 ∘C policy target and discuss extensions to other policies. Across policy contexts, the choice of time parameters is particularly important. Metrics that emphasize the immediate impacts of short-lived gases such as methane can reduce rates of climate change but may require more rapid technology changes. Differences in outcomes across metrics are more pronounced when fossil fuels, with or without carbon capture and storage, play a larger role in energy transitions. By identifying a small set of consequential design decisions, these insights can help make metric choices and energy transitions more deliberate and effective at mitigating climate change.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03442-8
