The Role of Oceans and Sea Ice in Abrupt Transitions between Multiple Climate States
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Rose-2013-The role of oceans a.pdf
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Author(s)
Rose, Brian E. J.
Ferreira, David
Marshall, John C
Date Issued
May 2013
Journal
Journal of Climate
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Rose, Brian E. J., David Ferreira, and John Marshall. “The Role of Oceans and Sea Ice in Abrupt Transitions between Multiple Climate States.” Journal of Climate 26, no. 9 (May 2013): 2862-2879. © 2013 American Meteorological Society
Version
Final published version
Abstract
The coupled climate dynamics underlying large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in ice cover are studied. A global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice general circulation model with idealized aquaplanet geometry is forced by gradual multi-millennial variations in solar luminosity. The model traverses a hysteresis loop between warm ice-free conditions and cold glacial conditions in response to ±5 W m[superscript −2] variations in global, annual-mean insolation. Comparison of several model configurations confirms the importance of polar ocean processes in setting the sensitivity and time scales of the transitions. A “sawtooth” character is found with faster warming and slower cooling, reflecting the opposing effects of surface heating and cooling on upper-ocean buoyancy and, thus, effective heat capacity. The transition from a glacial to warm, equable climate occurs in about 200 years.
In contrast to the “freshwater hosing” scenario, transitions are driven by radiative forcing and sea ice feedbacks. The ocean circulation, and notably the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), does not drive the climate change. The MOC (and associated heat transport) collapses poleward of the advancing ice edge, but this is a purely passive response to cooling and ice expansion. The MOC does, however, play a key role in setting the time scales of the transition and contributes to the asymmetry between warming and cooling.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00175.1
