The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States
Name
Autor12-12.pdf
Size
1.33 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
e24a93bc0417f9f05d6ec30256847caa
Author(s)
Autor, David
Dorn, David
Hanson, Gordon
Date Issued
May 2, 2012
Publisher
Cambridge, MA: Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Series/Report no.
Working paper, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics;12-12
Abstract
We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on local U.S. labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization while instrumenting for imports using changes in Chinese imports by industry to other high-income countries. Rising exposure increases unemployment, lowers labor force participation, and reduces wages in local labor markets. Conservatively, it explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in U.S. manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in exposed labor markets.
Subjects
Trade Flows, Import Compettition, Local Labor Markets, China
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