Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration
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cp_090323_robertsetal__ieee09_best_paper_award.pdf
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Author(s)
Roberts, Christopher J.
Richards, Matthew G.
Ross, Adam M.
Rhodes, Donna H.
Hastings, Daniel E.
Date Issued
March 23, 2009
Abstract
The long time scales associated with complex system
design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering
methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures.
This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a
parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts and
stakeholder expectations (e.g., articulated system attributes,
available technology, funding levels, and supporting
infrastructures). After surveying existing approaches for scenario
planning, a methodology for specifying and analyzing large
numbers of alternative system timelines is presented. A satellite
radar case study is used to motivate and illustrate the value of
this approach. Benefits of the methodology include: (1) broader
and more rigorous consideration of alternative future needs,
contexts, and timelines, (2) identification of gaps in traditionally-derived
scenario sets, (3) identification of passively value-robust
system alternatives, and (4) providing a basis for evaluating
system evolution strategies that enable sustainment of value
delivery across potential timelines.
Subjects
scenario planning
epoch-era analysis
multi-attribute tradespace exploration (MATE)
value robustness
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