US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits
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Wing-2015-US major crops' unce.pdf
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2.23 MB
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Author(s)
Wing, Ian Sue
Monier, Erwan
Stern, Ari
Mundra, Anupriya
Date Issued
October 2015
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Citation
Wing, Ian Sue, Erwan Monier, Ari Stern, and Anupriya Mundra. “US Major Crops’ Uncertain Climate Change Risks and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Benefits.” Environmental Research Letters 10, no. 11 (October 28, 2015): 115002. © 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd
Version
Final published version
Abstract
We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B).
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/115002
