A framework for technology forecasting and visualization
Name
Woon-2009-A framework for technology forecasting and visualization.pdf
Size
318.14 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
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Author(s)
Woon, Wei Lee
Henschel, Andreas
Madnick, Stuart E.
Date Issued
April 2010
Journal
International Conference on Innovations in Information Technology, 2009
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Citation
Woon, Wei Lee, Andreas Henschel, and Stuart Madnick. “A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization.” IEEE, 2009. 155–159. © Copyright 2009 IEEE
Version
Final published version
Abstract
This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication. While using bibliometric techniques in this way is not a new idea, the proposed approach extends previous studies in a number of important ways. Firstly, instead of being purely exploratory, the focus of our research has been on developing techniques for detecting technologies that are in the early growth phase, characterized by a rapid increase in the number of relevant publications. Secondly, to increase the reliability of the forecasting effort, we propose the use of automatically generated keyword taxonomies, allowing the growth potentials of subordinate technologies to be aggregated into the overall potential of larger technology categories. A proof-of-concept implementation of each component of the framework is presented, and is used to study the domain of renewable energy technologies. Results from this analysis are presented and discussed.
MIT Department
Sloan School of Management
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1109/IIT.2009.5413768
