Simulating a storage-production system with three oilseed crops
Name
826904038-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
Size
7.23 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
4ac32bb10d1b8b6a7c197241421eb260
Author(s)
Figer, Luiz
Advisor(s)
Bruce Arntzen.
Date Issued
2012
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
This work developed a simulation model that is intended to be used for strategic investment decisions by a company that operates in a wide range of activities in the agriculture business in Brazil. Mostly, it is a tool that allows the user, in this case the company management, to quantitatively assess the results of their qualitative expectations for the business environment. I found that the supply of grains is potentially a higher uncertainty factor than demand, that different configurations of crushing capacity and storage impact the results with significant difference, depending on the demand and supply scenarios even in the near future. Knowing that uncertainty is unavoidable and largely impacts the business, I measured it and found that, yield uncertainty alone can impact profits dramatically. The model developed in this paper can easily be leveraged to include more sophisticated crushing rules and up to date market data. It can also be run timely and produce tailored reports.
Description
Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2012.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 53-54).
Subjects
Engineering Systems Division.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
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copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but
reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written
permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.
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