Demand Forecasting Analysis for Pharma Retail
Name
de Souza et al_2021.pdf
Description
Capstone project
Size
1.59 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
e9370c6ad9be4236d761103a0d14ce70
Author(s)
Moreno Quintero, Nestor Andres
Martins de Brito Sousa, Mariana
Flores Trujillo, Waldo Mauricio Gabriel
Date Issued
April 2, 2025
Abstract
Demand planning is the connection between marketing, finance, and operations. In an industry like pharma retail, products do not always behave according to a regular stable baseline. In addition, marketing enrichment like promotions or price fluctuations and the impactof government regulations and patient base characteristics increase operational complexity. Moreover, more than thirty percent of changes in the forecast from one cycle to another can lead to overstock or out-of-stock due to the high production and delivery lead times.
The purpose of this project is to find a proper demand forecasting model for a selected group of stock-keeping units to improve supply processes of the most important stores of the sponsoring company, leading to further benefits such as budget purposes as a top-down analysis. Data analysis is needed for trends, seasonality, stockouts, and demand stability. Followed by the application of various forecasting models, including Machine Learning algorithms, this project provides a comparison of models to define the best baseline as a tool for the planning area to enrich to improve operational KPIs.
Subjects
Statistical forecasting
Outlier cleaning
Machine learning
Demand planning parameters
Pharmacy chain
Terms of Use
CC0 1.0 Universal
Persistent DSpace Link
