Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa
Name
jcli-d-16-0579.1.pdf
Size
1.27 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
51c4127cb9efef9ac1628e5373d40a74
Author(s)
Nicholson, S. E.
Schlosser, A.
Whittleston, David
Entekhabi, Dara
Date Issued
May 2017
Journal
Journal of Climate
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Whittleston, D. et al. “Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa.” Journal of Climate 30, 12 (June 2017): 4625–4632 © 2017 American Meteorological Society
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Changes in large-scale dynamics over West Africa-the strength and position of zonal jets-are a key interim step by which local and remote forcing is communicated into changes in rainfall. This study identifies a key mode of jet variability and demonstrates how it is strongly coupled with rainfall. The approach provides a quantitative framework to assess jet-rainfall coupling and a useful tool to investigate the concerning spread in CMIP5 rainfall projections over the West African Sahel. It is shown that many CMIP5 simulations fail to capture this coupling, indicating a fundamental limitation in their ability to predict future rainfall conditions. The results demonstrate that West African rainfall in the coming CMIP6 ensemble should be interpreted with caution; key atmospheric processes that deliver rainfall must be validated before conducting detailed analysis on rainfall. Keywords: Africa; Dynamics; Jets; Monsoons; Hydrometeorology; Model evaluation/performance
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0579.1
