Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission
Name
10818_2021_9310_ReferencePDF.pdf
Size
1.72 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
a1fd439185abaaa854b2c94a4cbcece8
Author(s)
Harris, Jeffrey E
Date Issued
March 2021
Journal
Journal of Bioeconomics
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Citation
Harris, Jeffrey E. "Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission." Journal of Bioeconomics 23, 1 (March 2021): 55–83 © 2021 The Author(s)
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
We observed wide variation in the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 300 communities making up Los Angeles County, the largest county by population in the United States. The surge in incidence from October 19, 2020 to January 10, 2021, accounting for two-thirds of all confirmed cases since the start of the epidemic, was concentrated in communities with a high prevalence of multi-generational households. This indicator of household structure was a more important predictor of the surge in incidence than the prevalence of households with low income or with at least one high-risk worker. Based upon a spatial adaptation of the standard SIR model, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19, adjusted for underascertainment of both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, ranged from under 10% in low multi-generational communities to over 30% in high multi-generational communities.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10818-021-09310-2
