Mortality tradeoff between air quality and skin cancer from changes in stratospheric ozone
Name
Eastham_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._13_034035.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
1.22 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
2556e9c4362b4912e9cda836caf26488
Author(s)
Eastham, Sebastian David
Keith, David W
Barrett, Steven R. H.
Date Issued
March 2018
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Citation
Eastham, Sebastian D et al. "Mortality tradeoff between air quality and skin cancer from changes in stratospheric ozone." Environmental Research Letters 13, 3 (March 2018): 034035 © 2018 The Author(s)
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Skin cancer mortality resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion has been widely studied. Similarly, there is a deep body of literature on surface ozone and its health impacts, with modeling and observational studies demonstrating that surface ozone concentrations can be increased when stratospheric air mixes to the Earth's surface. We offer the first quantitative estimate of the trade-off between these two effects, comparing surface air quality benefits and UV-related harms from stratospheric ozone depletion. Applying an idealized ozone loss term in the stratosphere of a chemistry-transport model for modern-day conditions, we find that each Dobson unit of stratospheric ozone depletion results in a net decrease in the global annual mortality rate of ∼40 premature deaths per billion population (d/bn/DU). The impacts are spatially heterogeneous in sign and magnitude, composed of a reduction in premature mortality rate due to ozone exposure of ∼80 d/bn/DU concentrated in Southeast Asia, and an increase in skin cancer mortality rate of ∼40 d/bn/DU, mostly in Western Europe. This is the first study to quantify air quality benefits of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the first to find that marginal decreases in stratospheric ozone around modern-day values could result in a net reduction in global mortality due to competing health impact pathways. This result, which is subject to significant methodological uncertainty, highlights the need to understand the health and environmental trade-offs involved in policy decisions regarding anthropogenic influences on ozone chemistry over the 21st century.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaad2e
