Reproducibility of soil moisture ensembles when representing soil parameter uncertainty using a Latin Hypercube-based approach with correlation control
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Entekhabi_Reproducibility of soil.pdf
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Author(s)
Flores, Alejandro N.
Entekhabi, Dara
Bras, Rafael L.
Date Issued
April 2010
Journal
Water Resources Research
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Citation
Flores, Alejandro N., Dara Entekhabi, and Rafael L. Bras. “Reproducibility of Soil Moisture Ensembles When Representing Soil Parameter Uncertainty Using a Latin Hypercube–based Approach with Correlation Control.” Water Resources Research 46.4 (2010): 1-13. CrossRef. Web. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
[1] Representation of model input uncertainty is critical in ensemble-based data assimilation. Monte Carlo sampling of model inputs produces uncertainty in the hydrologic state through the model dynamics. Small Monte Carlo ensemble sizes are desirable because of model complexity and dimensionality but potentially lead to sampling errors and correspondingly poor representation of probabilistic structure of the hydrologic state. We compare two techniques to sample soil hydraulic and thermal properties (SHTPs): (1) Latin Hypercube (LH) based sampling with correlation control and (2) random sampling from SHTP marginal distributions. A hydrology model is used to project SHTP uncertainty onto the soil moisture state for given forcings. For statistical comparison, we generate 20 ensembles for 7 ensemble sizes. Variance in ensemble moment estimates decreases with increasing ensemble size. The LH-based approach yields less variance in the estimate of ensemble moments at all ensemble sizes, an advantage greatest with small ensembles. Implications for hydrologic uncertainty assessment, data assimilation, and parameter estimation are discussed.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008155
