Covid-19 infection risk on US domestic airlines
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10729_2022_Article_9603.pdf
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1.27 MB
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Adobe PDF
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e79fbcbbd4d1afabffb70985f48fdb3e
Author(s)
Barnett, Arnold
Fleming, Keith
Date Issued
July 2, 2022
Publisher
Springer US
Citation
Barnett, Arnold and Fleming, Keith. 2022. "Covid-19 infection risk on US domestic airlines."
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Abstract
Working with recent data and research findings, we estimate the probability that an air traveler in economy class would have contracted Covid-19 on a US domestic jet flight over the nine-month period June 2020 to February 2021. The estimates take account of the rates of confirmed Covid-19 infections in the US, flight duration, fraction of seats occupied, and some demographic differences between US air travelers and US citizens as a whole. Based on point estimates, the risk of contracting Covid-19 in-flight exceeded 1 in 1000 on a fully-loaded two-hour flight at the height of the pandemic over the nine months, but was about 1 in 6000 on a half-full flight when the pandemic was at a low ebb. However, these estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty, with the 10th percentiles of various risk distributions only about 1/7 as large as the medians, and the 90th percentiles about four times as large. Based on seat-occupancy levels on US flights for each month over June 2020 to February 2021, the median risk estimate for that period is 1 in 2250, while the mean risk estimate is 1 in 1450. Indirect effects arose because those who contracted Covid-19 on US airplanes could in turn infect others.
MIT Department
Sloan School of Management
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Creative Commons Attribution
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-022-09603-6
