Sensitivity analysis of the reactor safety study
Name
MIT-EL-79-008-06851211.pdf
Size
8.73 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
099d6f4cb63192f1d448db4d6923ac78
Author(s)
Parkinson, William
Rasmussen, Norman C.
Hinkle, William D.
Date Issued
January 1979
Publisher
MIT Energy Laboratory
Series/Report no.
MIT-EL
79-008
Abstract
The Reactor Safety Study (RSS) or Wash-1400 developed a
methodology estimating the public risk from light water nuclear
reactors. In order to give further insights into this study,
a sensitivity analysis has been performed to determine the
significant contributors to risk for both the PWR and BWR.
The sensitivity to variation of the point values of the failure
probabilities reported in the RSS was determined for the
safety systems identified therein, as well as for many of the
generic classes from which individual failures contributed to
system failures. Increasing as well as decreasing point values
were considered. An analysis of the sensitivity to increasing
uncertainty in system failure probabilities was also performed.
The sensitivity parameters chosen were release category prob-
abilities, core melt probability, and the risk parameters of
early fatalities, latent cancers and total property damage.
The latter three are adequate for describing all public risks
identified in the RSS. The results indicate reductions of
public risk by less than a factor of two for factor reductions
in system or generic failure probabilities as hignh as one hundred.
There also appears to be more benefit in monitoring the most
sensitive systems to verify adherence to RSS failure rates
than to backfitting present reactors. The sensitivity analysis
results do indicate, however, possible benefits in reducing
human error rates.
Description
Originally presented as the first author's thesis, (M.S.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1979.
Subjects
Nuclear reactors |x Safety measures.
Boiling water reactors.
Pressurized water reactors.
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