Extreme rainfall intensities and long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones
Name
428437890-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
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42.17 MB
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Checksum (MD5)
49d7c8e922021ef37136b1e53ff5a3d0
Author(s)
Langousis, Andreas, 1981-
Advisor(s)
Daniele Veneziano.
Date Issued
2009
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
We develop a methodology for the frequency of extreme rainfall intensities caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) in coastal areas. The mean rainfall field associated with a TC with maximum tangential wind speed Vmax, radius of maximum winds Rmax, and translation speed Vmax, is obtained using a physically-based model, whereas rainfall variability at both large scales (from storm to storm) and small scales (due to rainbands and local convection) is modeled statistically. The statistical component is estimated using precipitation radar (PR) data from the TRMM mission. Taylor's hypothesis is used to convert spatial rainfall intensity fluctuations to temporal fluctuations at a given location A. The combined physical-statistical model gives the distribution of the maximum rainfall intensity at A during a period of duration D for a TC with characteristics (Vmax, Rmax, Vt) that passes at a given distance from A. To illustrate the use of the model for long-term rainfall risk analysis, we formulate a recurrence model for tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico that make landfall between longitudes 85°-95°W. We then use the rainfall and recurrence models to assess the rainfall risk for New Orleans. For return periods of 100 years or more and long averaging durations (D around 12-24 hours), tropical cyclones dominate over other rainfall event types, whereas the reverse is true for shorter return periods or shorter averaging durations.
Description
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2009.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 78-85).
Subjects
Civil and Environmental Engineering.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
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