Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity
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Solomon_Observed multivatiable.pdf
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Author(s)
Santer, Benjamin D.
Solomon, Susan
Zelinka, Mark D.
Painter, Jeffrey F.
Beltran, Francisco
Fyfe, John C.
Johannesson, Gardar
Mears, Carl A.
Vernier, Jean-Paul
Wentz, Frank J.
Date Issued
January 2015
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Citation
Santer, Benjamin D., Susan Solomon, Celine Bonfils, Mark D. Zelinka, Jeffrey F. Painter, Francisco Beltran, John C. Fyfe, et al. “Observed Multivariable Signals of Late 20th and Early 21st Century Volcanic Activity.” Geophysical Research Letters 42, no. 2 (January 20, 2015): 500–509. © 2014 American Geophysical Union
Version
Final published version
Abstract
The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near-global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear-sky short-wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near-global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo-caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062366
