The Future Energy and GHG Emissions Impact of Alternative Personal Transportation Pathways in China
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MITJPSPGC_Rpt231.pdf
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Checksum (MD5)
436e94f171918da63c8bd6ae7aab10e1
Author(s)
Kishimoto, P.N.
Paltsev, S.
Karplus, V.J.
Date Issued
October 2012
Publisher
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Citation
Report 231
Series/Report no.
JP Report Series;231
Abstract
A major uncertainty in future energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections for China is
the evolution of demand for personal transportation modes. This paper explores the implications of
divergent personal transportation scenarios, either favoring private vehicles, or emphasizing a sector
including all purchased transport (including local public transit, rail and aviation) as substitute for
vehicle travel. Motivated by a wide range of forecasts for transport indicators in the literature, we
construct plausible scenarios with low-, medium- and high-transport demand growth, and implement
them in a technology-rich model which represents opportunities for fuel economy improvement and
switching to plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs). The analysis compares primary energy use and
GHG emissions in China in the absence and presence of climate policies. We find that a policy that
extends the current Chinese emissions-intensity goals through 2050 mostly affects other sectors with
lower abatement costs, and so only lightly engages household transport, permitting nearly the same
large increases in refined oil demand (by more than five times) and private vehicle stocks (to 430–500
million) as in the reference case. A stringent climate stabilization policy affects household transport,
limiting vehicle ownership and petroleum demand, but drives up the share of household spending on
transport, and carries high economy-wide costs. The large projected scale of vehicle fleets, refined
oil use and transport purchases all suggest that the rate and type of travel demand growth deserves
attention by policymakers, as China seeks to address its energy, environmental, and economic goals.
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