Estimated effects of climate change on flood vulnerability of U.S. bridges
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11027_2011_Article_9354.pdf
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Author(s)
Wright, Len
Chinowsky, Paul
Strzepek, Kenneth
Jones, Russell
Streeter, Richard
Smith, Joel B.
Mayotte, Jean-Marc
Powell, Anthony
Jantarasami, Lesley
Perkins, William
Date Issued
February 2012
Journal
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Citation
Wright, Len et al. “Estimated Effects of Climate Change on Flood Vulnerability of U.S. Bridges.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 17.8 (2012): 939–955. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012
Version
Final published version
Abstract
We assessed the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) were used to capture a range of potential changes in climate. Using changes in maximum daily precipitation, we estimated changes to the peak flow rates for the 100-year return period for 2,097 watersheds. These estimates were then combined with information from the National Bridge Inventory database to estimate changes to bridge scour vulnerability. The results indicate that there may be significant potential risks to bridges in the United States from increased precipitation intensities. Approximately 129,000 bridges were found to be currently deficient. Tens of thousands to more than 100,000 bridges could be vulnerable to increased river flows. Results by region vary considerably. In general, more bridges in eastern areas are vulnerable than those in western areas. The highest GHG emissions scenarios result in the largest number of bridges being at risk. The costs of adapting vulnerable bridges to avoid increased damage associated with climate change vary from approximately $140 to $250 billion through the 21st century. If these costs were spread out evenly over the century, the annual costs would be several billion dollars. The costs of protecting the bridges against climate change risks could be reduced by approximately 30% if existing deficient bridges are improved with riprap.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-011-9354-2
