A Theory on Regional Impacts of Global Warming
Name
Geophysical Research Letters - 2025 - Eltahir - A Theory on Regional Impacts of Global Warming.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
2.23 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
a6dcaf5436bc59367811b9ad0ddac604
Author(s)
Eltahir, Elfatih AB
Choi, Yeon‐Woo
Date Issued
September 27, 2025
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Citation
Eltahir, E. A. B., & Choi, Y.-W. (2025). A theory on regional impacts of global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL118808.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Although spatial patterns of the observed and projected global warming are uniform with some relatively small variability, the magnitude and even sign of the projected regional impacts on crop yields, transmission of infectious diseases, outdoor days, and deadly heat waves, among other phenomena, vary significantly between different regions. Here, we offer a theory explaining how an apparently uniform warming with small variability can produce significantly more diverse regional impacts. The natural phenomena behind these impacts are governed by temperature thresholds dictating how the phenomena nonlinearly react to surface temperature, defining optimal ranges. Depending on how the background temperature at any location compares to these thresholds, the nature of the regional impacts of global warming, in sign and magnitude, may vary significantly in space despite relatively uniform warming. Hence, the spatial variability of historical temperature distribution emerges as a significant determinant of some of the projected regional impacts of global warming.
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Creative Commons Attribution
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118808
