The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector
Name
MIT-EL-78-004-04869433.pdf
Size
3.25 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
65f6918b7a5bb997b3a71b98dbda6057
Author(s)
Lilien, Gary Louis
Date Issued
1978
Publisher
MIT Energy Laboratory
Series/Report no.
MIT-EL
78-004
Abstract
This paper deals with the background, development and calibration of a model of innovation-diffusion, designed to help allocate government field test and demonstration resources in support of a photovoltaic technology across sectors, regions and over time. The paper reviews current work in the area of diffusion and substitution models, and gives a brief review of current theory in the buyer behavior area.
A model is developed, drawing upon concepts in these areas, and its computer implementation is reviewed. The measures needed to calibrate the model are performed in the agricultural-irrigation sector in conjunction with a field installation in Mead, Nebraska.
The analysis of those results indicated that
- only three to four demonstration projects are needed to eliminate new product risk-perception among farmers;
- exposure to a working PV site makes farmers more aware of potential energy savings than does a description of the system;
- key factors associated with PV are
- newness/expense
- complexity of the system and use of untried concepts
- independence from traditional fuel sources.
- exposure to the site has little effect on preference;
- PV is acceptable to a wide range of farmers;
- a premium would be paid for the product.
Additional model developments and the potential of a model-use to support decision-making for government programs are reviewed.
Subjects
Photovoltaic power generation.
Irrigation farming.
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