Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios
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Scenario-development-axiomatic.pdf
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815.88 KB
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Author(s)
Phadnis, Shardul
Caplice, Christopher
Singh, Mahender
Sheffi, Yosef
Date Issued
July 2014
Journal
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Publisher
Elsevier
Citation
Phadnis, Shardul et al. “Axiomatic Foundation and a Structured Process for Developing Firm-Specific Intuitive Logics Scenarios.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 88 (October 2014): 122–139 © 2014 Elsevier Inc
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
This paper presents an axiomatic foundation for developing firm-specific scenarios in the tradition of the Intuitive Logics School (ILS), a structured scenario creation process built on that foundation, and its application to a case. The ILS outlines a high-level scenario-development process, but without a theoretical basis or prescriptions for executing different process steps. The lack of theoretical grounding has led to a proliferation of methods for developing scenarios, without any basis for comparing them. We fill this gap in the literature by articulating a set of axioms characterizing the nature of human knowledge about the business environment and scenarios as depictions of that environment. Using this theoretical foundation, we devise a structured process for developing scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate this process by applying it to develop four scenarios for a firm in the U.S. healthcare sector.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Transportation & Logistics
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.019
