Sensitivity analysis methods for uncertainty budgeting in system design
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Willcox_Sensitivity analysis.pdf
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1.46 MB
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Author(s)
Opgenoord, Max MJ
Willcox, Karen E
Date Issued
January 2016
Journal
57th AIAA/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference
Publisher
American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Citation
Opgenoord, Max M., and Karen E. Willcox. “Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Uncertainty Budgeting in System Design.” AIAA/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference, 4-7 January, 2016, San Diego, California, USA, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016.
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
Quantification and management of uncertainty are critical in the design of engineering systems, especially in the early stages of conceptual design. This paper presents an approach to defining budgets on the acceptable levels of uncertainty in design quantities of interest, such as the allowable risk in not meeting a critical design constraint and the allowable deviation in a system performance metric. A sensitivity-based method analyzes
the effects of design decisions on satisfying those budgets, and a multi-objective optimization formulation permits the designer to explore the tradespace of uncertainty reduction activities while also accounting for a cost budget. For models that are computationally costly to evaluate, a surrogate modeling approach based on high dimensional model representation (HDMR) achieves efficient computation of the sensitivities. An example problem in aircraft conceptual design illustrates the approach.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2016-1423
