Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates
Name
Emanuel Nakamura_et_al-2017-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research%3A_Atmospheres.pdf
Size
10.72 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
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Author(s)
Nakamura, Jennifer
Camargo, Suzana J.
Henderson, Naomi
Kumar, Arun
LaRow, Timothy E.
Murakami, Hiroyuki
Roberts, Malcolm J.
Scoccimarro, Enrico
Vidale, Pier Luigi
Wang, Hui
Date Issued
August 2017
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Citation
Nakamura, Jennifer et al. “Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122, no. 18 (September 27, 2017): 9721–9744.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north‐south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. Keywords: tropical cyclones, tracks climate change, typhoons, cluster analysis
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027007
