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Future energy: in search of a scenario reflecting current and future pressures and trends
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10018_2021_Article_339.pdf
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1.55 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
4c5f6e54b78505ac5f71c52ebe3fb926
Author(s)
Morris, Jennifer
Hone, David
Haigh, Martin
Sokolov, Andrei
Paltsev, Sergey
Date Issued
February 16, 2022
Publisher
Springer Japan
Citation
Morris, Jennifer, Hone, David, Haigh, Martin, Sokolov, Andrei and Paltsev, Sergey. 2022. "Future energy: in search of a scenario reflecting current and future pressures and trends."
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Abstract
Growing societal pressures, technological trends and government and industry actions are moving the world toward decarbonization and away from the “business-as-usual”. As such, the concept of a single/obvious “business as usual” or “reference” scenario is no longer relevant. Instead, there are multiple plausible futures that should be explored. We contribute one such scenario that carefully considers emission-reduction trends and actions that are likely in the future, absent globally coordinated mitigation effort. We explore the long-term implications for energy, emissions, and temperature outcomes if the world continues to address climate change in the way it has so far—through piecemeal actions and growing social and technological pressures. This Growing Pressures scenario results in a central scenario outcome of about 3 °C of surface temperature warming, which is higher than the “well below 2 °C” level aspired by the Paris Agreement, but lower than many widely used “no-policy” scenarios. Ongoing and growing pressures of change, the roots of which are clearly visible today, could deliver a plausible energy transition scenario to near zero emissions that plays out over the coming century. While a more aggressive transition is clearly required, this finding highlights the need to bring actions forward in time to achieve an improved outcome making use of clearly identifiable policies and technologies.
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Creative Commons Attribution
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-021-00339-1
