Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections
Name
Geophysical Research Letters - 2019 - Hausfather - Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
3.81 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
07534bf636afe14dbbfa132d8fcc4a74
Author(s)
Hausfather, Zeke
Drake, Henri F
Abbott, Tristan
Schmidt, Gavin A
Date Issued
December 4, 2019
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Citation
Hausfather, Z., Drake, H. F., Abbott, T.,& Schmidt, G. A. (2020). Evaluating theperformance of past climate modelprojections. Geophysical ResearchLetters, 47.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Retrospectively comparing future model projections to observations provides a robust and independent test of model skill. Here we analyze the performance of climate models published between 1970 and 2007 in projecting future global mean surface temperature (GMST) changes. Models are compared to observations based on both the change in GMST over time and the change in GMST over the change in external forcing. The latter approach accounts for mismatches in model forcings, a potential source of error in model projections independent of the accuracy of model physics. We find that climate models published over the past five decades were skillful in predicting subsequent GMST changes, with most models examined showing warming consistent with observations, particularly when mismatches between model‐projected and observationally estimated forcings were taken into account.
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085378
