Modelling and observing the role of wind in Anopheles population dynamics around a reservoir
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12936_2018_Article_2197.pdf
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Author(s)
Endo, Noriko
Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
Date Issued
January 2018
Journal
Malaria Journal
Publisher
BioMed Central Ltd
Citation
Endo, Noriko and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir. "Modelling and observing the role of wind in Anopheles population dynamics around a reservoir." Malaria Journal 17 (Janaury 2018): 48 © 2018 The Author(s)
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Background
Wind conditions, as well as other environmental conditions, are likely to influence malaria transmission through the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes, especially around water-resource reservoirs. Wind-induced waves in a reservoir impose mortality on aquatic-stage mosquitoes. Mosquitoes’ host-seeking activity is also influenced by wind through dispersion of CO₂. However, no malaria transmission model exists to date that simulated those impacts of wind mechanistically.
Methods
A modelling framework for simulating the three important effects of wind on the behaviours of mosquito is developed: attraction of adult mosquitoes through dispersion of CO₂ (CO₂ attraction), advection of adult mosquitoes (advection), and aquatic-stage mortality due to wind-induced surface waves (waves). The framework was incorporated in a mechanistic malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS. The performance of the extended simulator was compared with the observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes at a village adjacent to the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia.
Results
The observed population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquitoes were reproduced with some reasonable accuracy in HYDREMATS that includes the representation of the wind effects. HYDREMATS without the wind model failed to do so. Offshore wind explained the increase in Anopheles population that cannot be expected from other environmental conditions alone. Conclusions
Around large water bodies such as reservoirs, the role of wind in the dynamics of Anopheles population, hence in malaria transmission, can be significant. Modelling the impacts of wind on the behaviours of Anopheles mosquitoes aids in reproducing the seasonality of malaria transmission and in estimation of the risk of malaria around reservoirs. Keywords: Malaria transmission; Water-resource reservoirs; Environmental conditions
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Parsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-018-2197-5
