Developments in Complex Systems Science with Applications to Political Systems and Pandemic Response
Name
siegenfeld-asiegenf-phd-physics-2022-thesis.pdf
Description
Thesis PDF
Size
4.77 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
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306e0c92bbf8094d4e49667a54b203d6
Author(s)
Siegenfeld, Alexander F.
Advisor(s)
Bar-Yam, Yaneer
Roy, Deb
Kardar, Mehran
Date Issued
May 2022
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
The standard assumptions that underlie most conceptual and quantitative frameworks do not hold for many complex physical, biological, and social systems. Complex systems science clarifies when and why such assumptions fail and provides alternative frameworks for understanding the properties of complex systems. We review some of the basic principles of complex systems science and provide a mathematical formalism for complexity profiles. We also illustrate general modeling principles using examples from pandemic response, including an illustration of how pandemics can be stably eliminated with a combination of social distancing measures and travel restrictions and how bad science led to bad policy regarding the use of face masks. Applications to democratic elections are also described. We define the concepts of negative representation and electoral instability, demonstrating that United States’ presidential elections underwent a transition from a stable to an unstable regime in the 1970s and have since become increasingly unstable. We also consider the implications of geographic political polarization on multi-scale electoral systems.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Physics
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