Using Machine Learning to Parameterize Moist Convection: Potential for Modeling of Climate, Climate Change, and Extreme Events
Name
2018MS001351.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
1.17 MB
Format
Unknown
Checksum (MD5)
a899ff173fa6cbe5a6e84a1c0531e848
Author(s)
O'Gorman, Paul
Dwyer, John G
Date Issued
2018
Journal
Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Version
Final published version
Abstract
©2018. The Authors. The parameterization of moist convection contributes to uncertainty in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction. Machine learning (ML) can be used to learn new parameterizations directly from high-resolution model output, but it remains poorly understood how such parameterizations behave when fully coupled in a general circulation model (GCM) and whether they are useful for simulations of climate change or extreme events. Here we focus on these issues using idealized tests in which an ML-based parameterization is trained on output from a conventional parameterization and its performance is assessed in simulations with a GCM. We use an ensemble of decision trees (random forest) as the ML algorithm, and this has the advantage that it automatically ensures conservation of energy and nonnegativity of surface precipitation. The GCM with the ML convective parameterization runs stably and accurately captures important climate statistics including precipitation extremes without the need for special training on extremes. Climate change between a control climate and a warm climate is not captured if the ML parameterization is only trained on the control climate, but it is captured if the training includes samples from both climates. Remarkably, climate change is also captured when training only on the warm climate, and this is because the extratropics of the warm climate provides training samples for the tropics of the control climate. In addition to being potentially useful for the simulation of climate, we show that ML parameterizations can be interrogated to provide diagnostics of the interaction between convection and the large-scale environment.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001351
