Dynamic Latent Plan Models
Name
Choudhury-2010-Dynamic Latent Plan.pdf
Size
588.62 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
cd58db9bff0d7950c66688a49a30a3e4
Author(s)
Choudhury, Charisma F.
Abou-Zeid, Maya
Ben-Akiva, Moshe E.
Date Issued
January 2010
Journal
Journal of Choice Modelling
Publisher
Elsevier
Citation
Choudhury, Charisma F., Moshe Ben-Akiva, and Maya Abou-Zeid. “Dynamic Latent Plan Models.” Journal of Choice Modelling 3, no. 2 (January 2010): 50–70.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Planning is an integral part of many behavioural aspects related to transportation: residential relocation, activity and travel scheduling, route choice, etc. People make plans and then select actions to execute those plans. The plans are inherently dynamic. They evolve due to situational constraints and contextual factors, experience, inertia, or changing preferences. As a result, the chosen actions might be different from those initially planned.
In this paper, we present the methodology to model the dynamics of choices using a two-layer decision hierarchy (choice of a plan and choice of action conditional on the plan) and its dynamics. This framework, based on Hidden Markov Model principles, assumes that the plan at every time period depends on the plan at the previous time period and the actions taken in the previous time periods as well as other variables including the characteristics of the decision maker. The dynamics in the observed actions are explained by the dynamics in the underlying latent (unobserved) plans. The methodology is demonstrated by modelling the dynamics associated with the driving decisions as the drivers enter a freeway. The model is estimated using disaggregate trajectory data and validated in a microscopic traffic simulator.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1755-5345(13)70035-6
