Reducing CO2 from cars in the European Union
Name
11116_2016_9741_ReferencePDF.pdf
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Author(s)
Löschel, Andreas
von Graevenitz, Kathrine
Koesler, Simon
Paltsev, Sergey
Chen, Yen-Heng
Karplus, Valerie Jean
Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo
Reilly, John M
Date Issued
October 2016
Journal
Transportation
Publisher
Springer US
Citation
Paltsev, Sergey, et al. “Reducing CO2 from Cars in the European Union.” Transportation, vol. 45, no. 2, Mar. 2018, pp. 573–95.
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
The European Union (EU) recently adopted CO2 emissions mandates for new passenger cars, requiring steady reductions to 95 gCO2/km in 2021. We use a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which includes a private transportation sector with an empirically-based parameterization of the relationship between income growth and demand for vehicle miles traveled. The model also includes representation of fleet turnover, and opportunities for fuel use and emissions abatement, including representation of electric vehicles. We analyze the impact of the mandates on oil demand, CO2 emissions, and economic welfare, and compare the results to an emission trading scenario that achieves identical emissions reductions. We find that vehicle emission standards reduce CO2 emissions from transportation by about 50 MtCO2 and lower the oil expenditures by about €6 billion, but at a net added cost of €12 billion in 2020. Tightening CO2 standards further after 2021 would cost the EU economy an additional €24–63 billion in 2025, compared with an emission trading system that achieves the same economy-wide CO2 reduction. We offer a discussion of the design features for incorporating transport into the emission trading system. Keywords: emission trading, emission standards, European Union, carbon emissions, passenger cars
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change
MIT Energy Initiative
Sloan School of Management
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-016-9741-3
