Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts
Name
s41467-018-02984-9.pdf
Size
1.07 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
646221e1a1529ac8011d18dd84f8bc14
Author(s)
Kicklighter, David
Haigh, Martin
Monier, Erwan
Paltsev, Sergey
Sokolov, Andrei P
Chen, Y.-H. Henry
Gao, Xiang
Ejaz, Qudsia J.
Couzo, Evan
Schlosser, Courtney Adam
Date Issued
February 2018
Journal
Nature Communications
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Citation
Monier, Erwan et al. “Toward a Consistent Modeling Framework to Assess Multi-Sectoral Climate Impacts.” Nature Communications 9, 1 (February 2018): 660 © 2018 The Author(s)
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis - which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios - we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change
Terms of Use
Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-02984-9
