Convergence of Expert Opinion via the Wideband Delphi Method: An Application in Cost Estimation Models
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CP_110623_Valerdi_Incose_IS_2011.pdf
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550.36 KB
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9bfcfe2e04408dcb639a57edab3adab5
Author(s)
Valerdi, Ricardo
Date Issued
2011
Abstract
This paper discusses the notion of collective intelligence through the application of the
Wideband Delphi method as a way to obtain convergence among a group of experts. The
specific application is the definition and calibration of cost estimation models that use data
collected from experts as part of their calibration. Convergence is important in this case because
companies need to commit to cost estimates early in the planning cycle since so many other
decisions are dependent on it. Our results demonstrate that, in most cases, convergence among
experts can be achieved after three rounds of the Wideband Delphi.
Subjects
convergence
Wideband Delphi
cost estimation
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