Global health and economic impacts of future ozone pollution
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Selin_Global health.pdf
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Author(s)
Wu, S.
Nam, Kyung-min
Paltsev, Sergey
Webster, Mort David
Selin, Noelle E
Reilly, John M
Prinn, Ronald G
Date Issued
December 2009
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
Institute of Physics Publishing
Citation
Selin, N. E. et al. “Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution.” Environmental Research Letters 4.4 (2009): 044014.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000–2050 changes in ozone
pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis - Health Effects (EPPA-HE)
model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model
of climate and chemistry effects of projected future emissions. We use EPPA-HE to assess the
human health damages (including mortality and morbidity) caused by ozone pollution, and
quantify their economic impacts in sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone
pollution under scenarios with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions
(using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone pollution
above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be $580 billion (year 2000$) and that mortalities from
acute exposure will exceed 2 million. We find that previous methodologies underestimate costs
of air pollution by more than a third because they do not take into account the long-term,
compounding effects of health costs. The economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the
influence of climate alone.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Urban Studies and Planning
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
MIT Energy Initiative
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044014
