Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin
Name
1-s2.0-S2095927319306668-main.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
1.62 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
ae9e65408a60dc1444acd9c089a4c4f3
Author(s)
Chen, Aifang
Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
Chen, Deliang
Lin, Changgui
Zhang, Fuqing
Date Issued
March 2020
Journal
Science Bulletin
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Citation
Chen, Aifang et al. "Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin." Science Bulletin 65, 5 (March 2020): 419-424 © 2019 Science China Press
Version
Final published version
Abstract
The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin (MRB). Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed since the 1970s, climate models project an increasing TC intensity in the 21st century over the Western North Pacific, which is the primary TC source region influencing the MRB. Yet, how future TC activities will affect extreme winds quantitatively in the MRB remains unclear. By employing a novel dynamical downscaling technique using a specialized, coupled ocean-atmospheric model, shorter return periods of maximum wind speed in the MRB for 2081–2100 compared with 1981–2000 are projected based on five global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting increases in the future tropical cyclone intensity. The results point to consistently elevated future TC-related risks that may jeopardize sustainable development, disrupt food supply, and exacerbate conflicts in the region and beyond.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.11.022
