Potential Direct and Indirect Effects of Global Cellulosic Biofuel Production on Greenhouse Gas Fluxes from Future Land-use Chage
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MITJPSPGC_Rpt210.pdf
Description
Main article
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8.03 MB
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Author(s)
Kicklighter, D.W.
Gurgel, A.
Melillo, J.
Paltsev, S.
Date Issued
March 2012
Publisher
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Citation
Report no. 210
Series/Report no.
Joint Program Report Series;210
Abstract
The production of cellulosic biofuels may have a large influence on future land emissions of
greenhouse gases. These effects will vary across space and time depending on land-use policies,
trade, and variations in environmental conditions. We link an economic model with a terrestrial
biogeochemistry model to explore how projections of cellulosic biofuels production may influence
future land emissions of carbon and nitrous oxide. Tropical regions, particularly Africa and Latin
America, are projected to become major producers of biofuels. Most biofuels production is projected
to occur on lands that would otherwise be used to produce crops, livestock and timber. Biofuels
production leads to displacement and a redistribution of global food and timber production along
with a reduction in the trade of food products. Overall, biofuels production and the displacement of
other managed lands increase emissions of greenhouse gases primarily as a result of carbon
emissions from deforestation and nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer applications to maximize
biofuel crop production in tropical regions. With optimal application of nitrogen fertilizers, cellulosic
biofuels production may enhance carbon sequestration in soils of some regions. As a result, the
relative importance of carbon emissions versus nitrous oxide emissions varies among regions.
Reductions in carbon sequestration by natural ecosystems caused by the expansion of biofuels have
minor effects on the global greenhouse gas budget and are more than compensated by concurrent
biofuel-induced reductions in nitrous oxide emissions from natural ecosystems. Land policies that
avoid deforestation and fertilizer applications, particularly in tropical regions, will have the largest
impact on minimizing land emissions of greenhouse gas from cellulosic biofuels production.
Description
http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/2240
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