A mathematical programming/economic equilibrium model for the quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system
Name
MIT-EL-86-016WP-19524201.pdf
Size
1.93 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
9c573e1eb1d7f7fd1eee2d586673755f
Author(s)
Oyama, Tatsuo
Date Issued
1986
Publisher
MIT Energy Lab
Series/Report no.
MIT-EL
86-016WP
Abstract
Japan's energy supply-demand system is fully dependent on
the import of primary energy resources from foreign countries. So
the availability of primary energy, including crude oil and coal,
is a very important factor for the stability of our energy
system. In order to measure our energy system's stability under
an uncertain future availability of energy resources, we built a
mathematical programming / economic equilibrium model based upon
linear programming techniques. In the model analysis uncertain
future availability of primary energy resources is expressed as
random variables with a given probability distribution, and the
economic equilibrium point is obtained by iterative convergent
computation.
From our numerical results we know an optimal energy
supply-demand structure with equilibrium prices of primary energy
resources at the future target year, and obtain supply stability
and instability probabilities of our energy system. Furthermore,
applicability of decomposition techniques to our energy model
analysis and necessary and sufficient conditions for the
stability of our energy system are discussed.
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