Magnified Effects of Changes in NIH Research Funding Levels
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Larson_Magnified effects.pdf
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642.98 KB
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Author(s)
Ghaffarzadegan, Navid
Diaz, Mauricio Gomez
Larson, Richard Charles
Date Issued
December 2012
Journal
Service Science
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
Citation
Larson, Richard C., Navid Ghaffarzadegan, and Mauricio Gomez Diaz. “Magnified Effects of Changes in NIH Research Funding Levels.” Service Science 4, no. 4 (December 2012): 382–395.
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
What happens within the university-based research enterprise when a federal funding agency abruptly changes research grant funding levels, up or down? We use simple difference equation models to show that an apparently modest increase or decrease in funding levels can have dramatic effects on researchers, graduate students, postdocs, and the overall research enterprise. The amplified effect is due to grants lasting for an extended period, thereby requiring the majority of funds available in one year to pay for grants awarded in previous years. We demonstrate the effect in various ways, using National Institutes of Health data for two situations: the historical doubling of research funding from 1998 to 2003 and the possible effects of “sequestration” in January 2013. We posit human responses to such sharp movements in funding levels and offer suggestions for amelioration.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
MIT Sociotechnical Systems Research Center
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1287/serv.1120.0030
