Medicane risk in a changing climate
Name
Emanuel_Medicane risk.pdf
Size
7.12 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
636f61dad2d33085ce9c333d5473c6c3
Author(s)
Romero, R.
Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
Date Issued
June 2013
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Citation
Romero, R., and K. Emanuel. “Medicane Risk in a Changing Climate.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, no. 12 (June 27, 2013): 5992–6001.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” are extreme cyclonic windstorms morphologically and physically similar to tropical cyclones. Owing to their potential destructiveness on the islands and continental coastal zones, medicane risk assessment is of paramount importance. With an average frequency of only one to two events per year and given the lack of systematic, multidecadal databases, an objective evaluation of the long-term risk of medicane-induced winds is impractical with standard methods. Also, there is increasing concern about the way these extreme phenomena could change in frequency or intensity as a result of human influences on climate. Here we apply a statistical-deterministic approach that entails the generation of thousands of synthetic storms, thus enabling a statistically robust assessment of the current and future risk. Fewer medicanes but a higher number of violent storms are projected at the end of the century compared to present, suggesting an increased probability of major economic and social impacts as the century progresses.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50475
