Investigating time, strength, and duration of measures in controlling the spread of COVID-19 using a networked meta-population model
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Author(s)
Zhang, Jiang
Dong, Lei
Zhang, Yanbo
Chen, Xinyue
Yao, Guiqing
Han, Zhangang
Date Issued
June 2020
Journal
Nonlinear Dynamics
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Citation
Zhang, Jiang et al. "Investigating time, strength, and duration of measures in controlling the spread of COVID-19 using a networked meta-population model." Nonlinear Dynamics 101, 3 (June 2020): 1789–1800 © 2020 Springer Nature
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
Policy makers around the world are facing unprecedented challenges in making decisions on when and what degrees of measures should be implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, using a nationwide mobile phone dataset, we developed a networked meta-population model to simulate the impact of intervention in controlling the spread of the virus in China by varying the effectiveness of transmission reduction and the timing of intervention start and relaxation. We estimated basic reproduction number and transition probabilities between health states based on reported cases. Our model demonstrates that both the time of initiating an intervention and its effectiveness had a very large impact on controlling the epidemic, and the current Chinese intense social distancing intervention has reduced the impact substantially but would have been even more effective had it started earlier. The optimal duration of the control measures to avoid resurgence was estimated to be 2 months, although would need to be longer under less effective controls.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. SENSEable City Laboratory
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05769-2
