Simulation‐based estimation of the early spread of COVID‐19 in Iran: actual versus confirmed cases
Name
2020.03.22.20040956v1.full.pdf
Description
Submitted version
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657.3 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
55a98240798bc39b33b2c5eb93cc4ee1
Author(s)
Ghaffarzadegan, Navid
Rahmandad, Hazhir
Date Issued
January 2020
Journal
System Dynamics Review
Publisher
Wiley
Citation
Ghaffarzadegan, Navid and Hazhir Rahmandad. "Simulation‐based estimation of the early spread of COVID‐19 in Iran: actual versus confirmed cases." System Dynamics Review 36, 1 (January 2020): 101-129 © 2020 System Dynamics Society
Version
Original manuscript
Abstract
Understanding the state of the COVID-19 pandemic relies on infection and mortality data. Yet official data may underestimate the actual cases due to limited symptoms and testing capacity. We offer a simulation-based approach which combines various sources of data to estimate the magnitude of outbreak. Early in the epidemic we applied the method to Iran's case, an epicenter of the pandemic in winter 2020. Estimates using data up to March 20th, 2020, point to 916,000 (90% UI: 508 K, 1.5 M) cumulative cases and 15,485 (90% UI: 8.4 K, 25.8 K) total deaths, numbers an order of magnitude higher than official statistics. Our projections suggest that absent strong sustaining of contact reductions the epidemic may resurface. We also use data and studies from the succeeding months to reflect on the quality of original estimates. Our proposed approach can be used for similar cases elsewhere to provide a more accurate, early, estimate of outbreak state.
MIT Department
Sloan School of Management
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1655
