Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate
Name
s41467-020-15162-7.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
1.46 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
2a3a1ac3c03bfb5a037e6450c91adbac
Author(s)
Lickley, Megan Jeramaz
Solomon, Susan
Fletcher, Sarah Marie
Stone, Kane Adam
Date Issued
March 2020
Journal
Nature communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Citation
Lickley, Megan, et al., "Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate." Nature communications 11, 1 (March 2020): no. 1380 doi 10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7 ©2020 Author(s)
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources. ©2020
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7
