Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome
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Caballero10-16.pdf
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246.25 KB
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Author(s)
Caballero, Ricardo
Date Issued
September 27, 2010
Publisher
Cambridge, MA: Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Series/Report no.
Working paper, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics;10-16
Abstract
In this paper I argue that the current core of macroeconomics—by which I mainly mean the so-called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach—has become so mesmerized with its own internal logic that it has began to confuse the precision it has achieved about its own world with the precision that it has about the real one. This is dangerous for both methodological and policy reasons. On the methodology front, macroeconomic research has been in “fine-tuning” mode within the local-maximum of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium world, when we should be in “broad-exploration” mode. We are too far from absolute truth to be so specialized and to make the kind of confident quantitative claims that often emerge from the core. On the policy front, this confused precision creates the illusion that a minor adjustment in the standard policy framework will prevent future crises, and by doing so it leaves us overly exposed to the new and unexpected.
Subjects
pretense of knowledge
DSGE
core and periphery of macroeconomics
financial crisis
complexity
robust control
uncertainty
rational expectations
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