Demographics and Automation
Name
Demograhics and Automation.pdf
Description
Accepted version
Size
906.33 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
62a0c012c28657b38f98ec806497e1a6
Author(s)
Acemoglu, K. Daron
Restrepo, Pascual
Date Issued
2022
Journal
Review of Economic Studies
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Citation
Acemoglu, Daron and Restrepo, Pascual. 2022. "Demographics and Automation." Review of Economic Studies, 89 (1).
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
Abstract
We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technological change model predicts that the response of automation technologies to aging should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation and that productivity should improve and the labor share should decline relatively in industries that are more amenable to automation. The evidence supports all four of these predictions.
We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technological change model predicts that the response of automation technologies to aging should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation and that productivity should improve and the labor share should decline relatively in industries that are more amenable to automation. The evidence supports all four of these predictions.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1093/RESTUD/RDAB031
