Energy prices and energy intensity in China : a structural decomposition analysis and econometric study
Name
69135581-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
Size
6.66 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
97bcb7596335f15440717232029bcea0
Author(s)
Shi, Xiaoyu, M.C.P. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Advisor(s)
Karen R. Polenske.
Date Issued
2005
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., physical energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has declined dramatically, by about 70%, in spite of increases in energy consumption. Is this just a coincidence? Or does a systematic relationship exist between energy prices and energy intensity? In this study, I examine whether and how China's energy price changes affect its energy intensity trend during 1980-2002 at a macro level. I conduct the research using two complementary economic models (the input-output-based structural decomposition analysis and econometric regression models) and a decomposition method of own-price elasticity of energy intensity. Findings include a negative own-price elasticity of energy intensity, a price-inducement effect on energy-efficiency improvement, and a greater sensitivity, in terms of the reaction of energy intensity towards changes in energy prices, of the industry sector, compared to the overall economy. Analysts can use these results as a starting point for China's energy use and carbon emission forecasts, which they traditionally conduct in China without accounting for energy intensity and energy prices.
(cont.) In addition, policy implications may initiate new thinking about energy policies that are needed to conserve China's energy resources and reduce carbon emissions.
Description
Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2005.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 113-115).
Subjects
Urban Studies and Planning.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Urban Studies and Planning
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