Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases
Name
Belik-2011-Natural human mobility patterns.pdf
Size
261.02 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
b9781d6078a3377fcfe8eaec7cc71140
Author(s)
Belik, Vitaly
Geisel, Theo
Brockmann, Dirk
Date Issued
August 2011
Journal
Physical Review X
Publisher
American Physical Society
Citation
Belik, Vitaly, Theo Geisel, and Dirk Brockmann. “Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases.” Physical Review X 1, no. 1 (August 2011).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bidirectional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of the model on regular and complex metapopulation network topologies and show that significant dynamical differences exist to ordinary reaction-diffusion and effective force of infection models. On a lattice we calculate an expression for the velocity of the propagating epidemic front and find that, in contrast to the diffusive systems, our model predicts a saturation of the velocity with an increasing traveling rate. Furthermore, we show that a fully stochastic system exhibits a novel threshold for the attack ratio of an outbreak that is absent in diffusion and force of infection models. These insights not only capture natural features of human mobility relevant for the geographical epidemic spread, they may serve as a starting point for modeling important dynamical processes in human and animal epidemiology, population ecology, biology, and evolution.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.1.011001
