Common cause analysis : a review and extension of existing methods
Name
EL_TR_1982_038.pdf
Size
19.57 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
2d4f886067477d27662e90a6ddd3afc6
Author(s)
Heising, Carolyn D.
Rasmussen, Norman C.
Mak, Cho H.
Date Issued
1982
Publisher
Cambridge, Mass. : Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Energy Laboratory, 1982
Series/Report no.
Energy Laboratory report (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Energy Laboratory) no. MIT-EL 82-038.
Abstract
The quantitative common cause analysis code, MOBB, is extended to include uncertainties arising from modelling uncertainties and data uncertainties. Two methods, Monte Carlo simulation and the Method-of-Moments are used to propagate uncertainties through the analysis. The two different capabilities of the code are then compared. When component failure rates are assumed lognormallv distributed, bounded lognormal (Sb) distributions are used to evaluate higher moment terms, as required by the Method-of-Moments, in order to minimize the effect of the tail of the lognormal. A code using the discrete probability distribution (DPD) method is developed for analyzing system unavailability due to common initiating events (internal and external). Sample problems demonstrating each approach are also presented.
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