Oxygenation thresholds for invasive ventilation in hypoxemic respiratory failure: a target trial emulation in two cohorts
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13054_2023_Article_4307.pdf
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Author(s)
Yarnell, Christopher J.
Angriman, Federico
Ferreyro, Bruno L.
Liu, Kuan
De Grooth, Harm J.
Burry, Lisa
Munshi, Laveena
Mehta, Sangeeta
Celi, Leo
Elbers, Paul
Date Issued
February 22, 2023
Publisher
BioMed Central
Citation
Critical Care. 2023 Feb 22;27(1):67
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Abstract
Background
The optimal thresholds for the initiation of invasive ventilation in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure are unknown. Using the saturation-to-inspired oxygen ratio (SF), we compared lower versus higher hypoxemia severity thresholds for initiating invasive ventilation.
Methods
This target trial emulation included patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV, 2008–2019) and the Amsterdam University Medical Centers (AmsterdamUMCdb, 2003–2016) databases admitted to intensive care and receiving inspired oxygen fraction ≥ 0.4 via non-rebreather mask, noninvasive ventilation, or high-flow nasal cannula. We compared the effect of using invasive ventilation initiation thresholds of SF < 110, < 98, and < 88 on 28-day mortality. MIMIC-IV was used for the primary analysis and AmsterdamUMCdb for the secondary analysis. We obtained posterior means and 95% credible intervals (CrI) with nonparametric Bayesian G-computation.
Results
We studied 3,357 patients in the primary analysis. For invasive ventilation initiation thresholds SF < 110, SF < 98, and SF < 88, the predicted 28-day probabilities of invasive ventilation were 72%, 47%, and 19%. Predicted 28-day mortality was lowest with threshold SF < 110 (22.2%, CrI 19.2 to 25.0), compared to SF < 98 (absolute risk increase 1.6%, CrI 0.6 to 2.6) or SF < 88 (absolute risk increase 3.5%, CrI 1.4 to 5.4). In the secondary analysis (1,279 patients), the predicted 28-day probability of invasive ventilation was 50% for initiation threshold SF < 110, 28% for SF < 98, and 19% for SF < 88. In contrast with the primary analysis, predicted mortality was highest with threshold SF < 110 (14.6%, CrI 7.7 to 22.3), compared to SF < 98 (absolute risk decrease 0.5%, CrI 0.0 to 0.9) or SF < 88 (absolute risk decrease 1.9%, CrI 0.9 to 2.8).
Conclusion
Initiating invasive ventilation at lower hypoxemia severity will increase the rate of invasive ventilation, but this can either increase or decrease the expected mortality, with the direction of effect likely depending on baseline mortality risk and clinical context.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Medical Engineering & Science
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13054-023-04307-x
