A cost/benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for COVID-19 vaccine candidates
Name
journal.pone.0244418.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
1.02 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
bf1c53bc3730c2cd6191e2c571bf4cba
Author(s)
Berry, Donald A.
Berry, Scott
Hale, Peter
Isakov, Leah
Lo, Andrew W
Siah, Kien Wei
Wong, Chi Heem
Date Issued
December 2020
Journal
PLoS ONE
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Citation
Berry, Donald A."A cost/benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for COVID-19 vaccine candidates." PLoS ONE 15, 12 (December 2020): e0244418. © 2020 Berry et al.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
We compare and contrast the expected duration and number of infections and deaths averted among several designs for clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates, including traditional and adaptive randomized clinical trials and human challenge trials. Using epidemiological models calibrated to the current pandemic, we simulate the time course of each clinical trial design for 756 unique combinations of parameters, allowing us to determine which trial design is most effective for a given scenario. A human challenge trial provides maximal net benefits-averting an additional 1.1M infections and 8,000 deaths in the U.S. compared to the next best clinical trial design-if its set-up time is short or the pandemic spreads slowly. In most of the other cases, an adaptive trial provides greater net benefits.
MIT Department
Sloan School of Management
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244418
