Random load fluctuations and collapse probability of a power system operating near codimension 1 saddle-node bifurcation
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Turitsyn_Random load.pdf
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Author(s)
Podolsky, Dmitry
Turitsyn, Konstantin
Date Issued
July 2013
Journal
Proceedings of the 2013 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Citation
Podolsky, Dmitry, and Konstantin Turitsyn. “Random Load Fluctuations and Collapse Probability of a Power System Operating Near Codimension 1 Saddle-Node Bifurcation.” 2013 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting (2013).
Version
Original manuscript
Abstract
For a power system operating in the vicinity of the power transfer limit of its transmission system, effect of stochastic fluctuations of power loads can become critical as a sufficiently strong such fluctuation may activate voltage instability and lead to a large scale collapse of the system. Considering the effect of these stochastic fluctuations near a codimension 1 saddle-node bifurcation, we explicitly calculate the autocorrelation function of the state vector and show how its behavior explains the phenomenon of critical slowing-down often observed for power systems on the threshold of blackout. We also estimate the collapse probability/mean clearing time for the power system and construct a new indicator function signaling the proximity to a large scale collapse. The new indicator function is easy to estimate in real time using data from PMU and SCADA information about power load fluctuations on the nodes of the grid. We discuss control strategies leading to the minimization of the collapse probability.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Mechanical Engineering
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Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1109/PESMG.2013.6672637
