Breaking the Loop: Climate-Driven Urbanism for America's Climate Migration Hubs
Name
wagner-cbwagner-mcp-dusp-2025-thesis.pdf
Description
Thesis PDF
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42.25 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
c7ab07cdac0eea88304d798f482893cc
Author(s)
Wagner, Cale
Advisor(s)
Gamble, David
Date Issued
May 2025
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
As sea level rise and other climate impacts force millions across the U.S. to increasingly relocate in coming decades, how receiving cities accommodate this growth will significantly impact future emissions trajectories. This thesis examines the climate migration feedback loop, where climate migrants relocate to urban areas with carbon-intensive development patterns, inadvertently accelerating the climate change driving their displacement.
Through analysis of three contrasting metropolitan areas—Atlanta, Portland, and Buffalo—this research demonstrates how different development approaches could either perpetuate or disrupt this feedback loop. Using a spatial methodology based on the urban transect model, the study compares Business-as-Usual scenarios that follow current development trends with Climate-Driven Reform scenarios that redirect growth toward transit-accessible, walkable locations.
The research reveals that Climate-Driven Urbanism can meaningfully reduce both land consumption and emissions compared to conventional development patterns. These reductions stem not from technological advancement or behavioral change, but from strategic spatial reorganization of the same migrating population, with each metropolitan area demonstrating unique implementation pathways. By connecting regional migration flows to metropolitan development scenarios and neighborhood design interventions, this thesis offers planners, designers, and communities a framework for evaluating alternative futures that transform population growth from a spatial challenge and emissions liability into a catalyst for sustainable urbanism.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Urban Studies and Planning
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